Anyone who bets on sport understands that it is something of an inexact science. As soon as the players cross the white lines and the match gets underway, it is entirely out of your control. The action is unpredictable, and this is one of the reasons why sports betting is so popular all over the world.
There are still some factors that people hoping to make money can even try to control, however. As an example, one of the main things people do to increase the winning wagers they pick is to use statistics. Data is vast in the world of sport these days, and people who bet on matches are also embracing this new world. So what do you need to do to apply statistics into sports betting?
1. Data can show how teams and players are performing.
Results are, obviously, one of the best ways to see how a player or a team is performing in their chosen sport. But sometimes you need to go underneath the surface to see exactly what is going on. Often, teams can keep winning even if they are not playing well overall. Data can not only show why this may be the case but can indicate when it is likely a downturn in results could be coming up around the corner.
In football, for example, statistics are being embraced in a big way. While some fans remain skeptics, clubs have been buying into the data revolution for many years now. Statistics like expected goals – or xG for short – help to show the quality of the chances that are being created by a team. What this shows is whether or not they are playing well enough to get the results that they have been achieving. When xG is higher than the actual number of goals a team is scoring, it suggests their results could soon improve. But when a team is scoring more goals than their xG suggests, this means an impending dip in yields is likely. It is not just teams where xG can be handy in football. Players have their xG, too, so you can highlight which players are in remarkably good form at any one time.
2. Using statistics to calculate the value in sports betting.
One of the main areas where statistics and sports betting link-up is when people are trying to find value, which is a vital concept for anyone who hopes to make a living out of betting on the sport. Value can make all the difference between making a profit overall or suffering a loss. You need to be able to spot good and bad value sport betting odds. Statistics can help in this regard. By using data and various key metrics, it should be possible to come up with an idea of a team’s chances of winning a match.
You can also opt to use statistics in a more individual sport such as tennis. The idea remains the same, with the principle of the matter unchanged. Newcomers to sports betting may be unsure of whether the value is worth chasing. But value is always significant as it impacts how much money goes back into your pocket at the end of the day.
3. Correlation does not necessarily mean causation.
People who bet on sports should remember one thing when using statistics: correlation does not necessarily mean causation. What this means in practice is that just because there is a correlation between two variables, there is not necessarily causation between the two. It can be easy to lose sight of this fact, but it is vital when using statistics to come up with winning wagers in sports betting.