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How To Apply Probability Statistics In Football Betting

Applying probability statistics to win a football sports bet

There are a lot of different methods involved in trying to win a football sports bet. Some people rely on instinct. For others, it is a matter of studying the form. However, increasingly people are going even more in-depth in a bid to find winning wagers regularly. Applying probability statistics to win a football sports bet is a relatively new approach. A lot of people, though, are finding that this works exceptionally well for them. There has been an explosion in the use of data in sports over the last few years.

There are a few reasons for this, with the desire to achieve marginal gains among them. Nobody wants to be left behind by the competition. Many sports teams themselves are also using a ‘Moneyball’-style approach too. So if you want to use probability statistics to try to win a football bet, what do you need to do to get started? Our guide tells you all that you need to know in this area, so read on.


The Bookmakers Use Probability Statistics

You might be asking why it is necessary to use probability statistics at this point. But the bookmakers have been using this type of data for a long time. It is partly how they come up with the odds and prices they use for their markets. As a result, embracing the use of probability statistics can be an excellent way to catch up with the bookmakers. They are always likely to come out on top overall, but this might give you an edge as you try to win a football bet.

Odds essentially show probability. Bookmakers take other factors into account, but this is the main one. After taking their house edge into account – this is usually around five percent – odds show the chances of an event happening. What this means it is easy to see quickly what the bookmakers think is going to happen in a particular match.

Using Probability To Identify Value In Football Betting

People who want to win a football bet will likely already be familiar with the concept of value. For those who are new to the idea, value essentially describes whether or not a bet is worth taking. Betting on sports is about more than deciding what is going to happen when the teams cross that white line.

Value is critical as it affects how much money you can earn from a football bet. The difference in the odds that are offered by the bookmakers might not seem to be very big. However, anyone betting on sports like football, a lot will find that the money mounts up if they take the best possible value for each wager. Taking good value not only boosts your potential profits, but it also shows the bookmakers they cannot afford to be tight on odds. Bookmakers face a balance of making their prices attractive while still protecting their bottom line.

Is Applying Probability Statistics Necessary?

Of course, it is possible to win a football bet without applying probability statistics. Quite a small number of sports fans use this method when they are deciding what to bet on. Many rely on gut instincts. However, if you are serious about trying to make a living from sports bets, then applying probability statistics might be worth considering. With so much data out there, it makes sense to try to use it to your advantage!

Reijo Heiskanen
the authorReijo Heiskanen

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